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Atradius Economic Outlook July 2010
Our latest bi-annual global outlook shows a return of confidence in major economies. However, several factors are casting a shadow and could yet derail the recovery.
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Atradius Market Monitor July 2010
Are we seeing the 'beginning of the end' of the downturn? This month we focus on the business environment in Germany, Ireland, the UK, Mexico, Brazil, Aistralia and Turkey.
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Country Report: South Africa June 2010
The expected GDP growth of 2.8% in 2010 will increase to 3.7% in 2011. However, the 2009 recession has undermined bank assets and has resulted in large budget deficits, and, to ensure a sustainable reduction in its very high unemployment rate, the country needs to achieve annual GDP growth of 4.5% to 5%.
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Country Report: Russia June 2010
The Russian economy will continue its recovery, with GDP growth of 3.5% this year and 4.3% in 2011. Nevertheless, the high commercial risk to the corporate and banking sector persists, as both are faced with an enormous debt service burden - mostly short term and mostly in foreign currencies - as adverse global sentiment towards credit risks continues. Banks in particular remain vulnerable. In contrast, Russia's external position is in good shape, with solid liquidity and solvency ratios.
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Country Report: Czech Republic June 2010
After a 0.9% rebound this year, GDP growth is projected to recover further in 2011 (3%), but this depends largely on a further upswing in export markets (especially automotive demand from Russia and Asia). Its good liquidity and solvency position are shielding the country from potential external funding problems. Despite some vulnerability to global market sentiments, we do not expect the koruna to fall victim to extreme volatility.
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Country Report: Argentina June 2010
Economic policy is too expansive in view of the real inflation figures of 15-20% and the rising budget deficits. In the short term the public sector will be able to meet its obligations, but this is less clear in the mid-term future. Despite the debt swap agreement in June 2010 and the prospect of a final debt settlement, the credit default swap (CDS) spreads on Argentina are still the highest in South America, and continue to bar its access to the global financial markets.
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